Dark Horse Heisman Odds and Big Ten QB Rankings

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Husker-Reeder1

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We all know that Lawrence and Fields are the obvious favorites, but a few names to keep an eye on from my perspective because of their odds (Vegas). My best top 5 value picks for the Heisman will account for the offensive system (stat producers), team success, players around him, and coaching. Here are my top 5...

Myles Brennan 25-1
Sam Howell 30-1
Kyle Trask 50-1
Ja'Marr Chase 100-1
Najee Harris 60-1

My thoughts are that Brennan has too much talent around him (not to mention his arm talent - check his HUDL), Howell proved himself last year as a true freshman and add this talent around him that Mack has been able to keep (Newsome and Brown) along with the 6th best-recruiting class in 2020. Trask is the most undervalued QB in the country and with explosive weapons around him in Grimes, Copeland, and Toney this team could explode. Ja'Marr Chase is the best WR I saw in all of college football last year and without Jefferson next to him, I expect him to even be better. Harris is my last pick because his talent and ability to bully defenders is something you don't see very often. Alabama has plenty of weapons at QB and WR, but expect Najee to be that leader and carry this team for Saban and Co.

I'd love to debate this more so drop some comments in and we can have some disagreements.

My Big Ten QB Rankings are as follows... I will put the school and the starter in parentheses:

14. Maryland (Jackson)
13. Northwestern (Johnson)
12. Purdue (Plummer)
11. Illinois (Peters)
10. Iowa (Petras)
9. Rutgers (Vedral) - Probably 12 or 13 if it's not Vedral
8. Michigan State (Lombardi)
7. Indiana (Penix Jr) - based on upside
6. Wisconsin (Coan) - to start the season, but once Mertz takes this offense over, "the roof is the ceiling"
5. Michigan (McCaffrey)
4. Minnesota (Morgan)
3. Nebraska (Martinez) - I'm hoping he can take the necessary steps forward unlike last year but his upside is there. Even if it's McCaffrey I still put it here because of the system and upside of these dual-threat QBs (and the weapons around them)
2. Penn State (Clifford)
1. Ohio State (Fields)

Let the arguments/debates begin. Can't wait for the season and hope this sparks that fire under all of us that we desperately need today!! Leave any reviews as well.

-Reeder
 
FQNebraska said:
Until we can prove it, I think Martinez is 6th/7th at best
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Fair point. In my opinion, I’m not the biggest Martinez guy in the world but I believe his upside and weapons around him put him at 3. He’s higher than Coan and that Wisconsin offense that lost a lot. He’s higher than Dylan McCaffrey because of the WRs they lost and he’s never proved anything. The controversial one is Morgan but I think the loss of Tyler Johnson is bigger than people think. He bailed them out a lot with his route running ability. Morgan is a one-dimensional QB that is relying on a deep ball receiver and nothing against Bateman cause I think he’s outstanding. He can’t fill Johnson’s shoes. Just watch that Wisconsin vs Minnesota game last year and tell me he’s a top 3 Big Ten QB.
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
Fair point. In my opinion, I’m not the biggest Martinez guy in the world but I believe his upside and weapons around him put him at 3. He’s higher than Coan and that Wisconsin offense that lost a lot. He’s higher than Dylan McCaffrey because of the WRs they lost and he’s never proved anything. The controversial one is Morgan but I think the loss of Tyler Johnson is bigger than people think. He bailed them out a lot with his route running ability. Morgan is a one-dimensional QB that is relying on a deep ball receiver and nothing against Bateman cause I think he’s outstanding. He can’t fill Johnson’s shoes. Just watch that Wisconsin vs Minnesota game last year and tell me he’s a top 3 Big Ten QB.
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I get what you are saying but Wisconsin is also loaded on OL. We are uncertain for our WRs atm
 
Not sure if I would say loaded for Wisconsin. They had several guys leave including their leader in Biadasz. They have several holes to fill and no Taylor to help them. I will agree NU is unsure outside of the TE group and Wandale. Lots of freshman and JUCO guys with Spielman a big question mark too. I think upside is there regardless especially because of Stoll, Allen, and Robinson. Not to mention I think NU has one of the better backs in the Big Ten in Mills. Takes a lot of pressure off the passing game especially with an improved and more experienced OL.
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
Not sure if I would say loaded for Wisconsin. They had several guys leave including their leader in Biadasz. They have several holes to fill and no Taylor to help them. I will agree NU is unsure outside of the TE group and Wandale. Lots of freshman and JUCO guys with Spielman a big question mark too. I think upside is there regardless especially because of Stoll, Allen, and Robinson. Not to mention I think NU has one of the better backs in the Big Ten in Mills. Takes a lot of pressure off the passing game especially with an improved and more experienced OL.
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I agree guess we will see what happens!
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
We all know that Lawrence and Fields are the obvious favorites, but a few names to keep an eye on from my perspective because of their odds (Vegas). My best top 5 value picks for the Heisman will account for the offensive system (stat producers), team success, players around him, and coaching. Here are my top 5...

Myles Brennan 25-1
Sam Howell 30-1
Kyle Trask 50-1
Ja'Marr Chase 100-1
Najee Harris 60-1

My thoughts are that Brennan has too much talent around him (not to mention his arm talent - check his HUDL), Howell proved himself last year as a true freshman and add this talent around him that Mack has been able to keep (Newsome and Brown) along with the 6th best-recruiting class in 2020. Trask is the most undervalued QB in the country and with explosive weapons around him in Grimes, Copeland, and Toney this team could explode. Ja'Marr Chase is the best WR I saw in all of college football last year and without Jefferson next to him, I expect him to even be better. Harris is my last pick because his talent and ability to bully defenders is something you don't see very often. Alabama has plenty of weapons at QB and WR, but expect Najee to be that leader and carry this team for Saban and Co.

I'd love to debate this more so drop some comments in and we can have some disagreements.

My Big Ten QB Rankings are as follows... I will put the school and the starter in parentheses:

14. Maryland (Jackson)
13. Northwestern (Johnson)
12. Purdue (Plummer)
11. Illinois (Peters)
10. Iowa (Petras)
9. Rutgers (Vedral) - Probably 12 or 13 if it's not Vedral
8. Michigan State (Lombardi)
7. Indiana (Penix Jr) - based on upside
6. Wisconsin (Coan) - to start the season, but once Mertz takes this offense over, "the roof is the ceiling"
5. Michigan (McCaffrey)
4. Minnesota (Morgan)
3. Nebraska (Martinez) - I'm hoping he can take the necessary steps forward unlike last year but his upside is there. Even if it's McCaffrey I still put it here because of the system and upside of these dual-threat QBs (and the weapons around them)
2. Penn State (Clifford)
1. Ohio State (Fields)

Let the arguments/debates begin. Can't wait for the season and hope this sparks that fire under all of us that we desperately need today!! Leave any reviews as well.

-Reeder
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What's your take on Jamie Newman teaming up with Todd Monken at UGA? Do you think he's worthy of where Vegas has him right now?
 
OldDevilDawg said:
What's your take on Jamie Newman teaming up with Todd Monken at UGA? Do you think he's worthy of where Vegas has him right now?
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I think Monken is a brilliant offensive mind and pair him with a talent like Jamie Newman and you could get something dangerous. Newman reminds me a lot of Cam Newton, with a little more speed. He is such a relaxed QB in the pocket and natural outside of it. Watch the film from Wake Forest and the hype makes sense. 10-1 odds for Newman seems like a perfect spot for me because this receiving corps is getting better. They were so young last year, but I see a big jump from them this year. Pickens is a beast standing at 6'4 and has some burner wheels too. I'm all in on Newman this for UGA.
 
CowpokeU said:
No Chuba Hubbard in your Top 5?
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Hubbard is a beast don't get me wrong, but I don't see him as much of a dark horse guy. I think he's a firm candidate that has proven himself. He's got a very good QB in Spencer Sanders to take some pressure off of him. Pair that with a weak Big 12 (in terms of defense) and I see a big year coming. An 8-4 or 9-3 Oklahoma St team is what would hold him back unless he can put up numbers that resemble a former Poke RB (Barry Sanders). Ok St is a scary team so I see Hubbard right in the race all year assuming he stays healthy.
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
We all know that Lawrence and Fields are the obvious favorites, but a few names to keep an eye on from my perspective because of their odds (Vegas). My best top 5 value picks for the Heisman will account for the offensive system (stat producers), team success, players around him, and coaching. Here are my top 5...

Myles Brennan 25-1
Sam Howell 30-1
Kyle Trask 50-1
Ja'Marr Chase 100-1
Najee Harris 60-1

My thoughts are that Brennan has too much talent around him (not to mention his arm talent - check his HUDL), Howell proved himself last year as a true freshman and add this talent around him that Mack has been able to keep (Newsome and Brown) along with the 6th best-recruiting class in 2020. Trask is the most undervalued QB in the country and with explosive weapons around him in Grimes, Copeland, and Toney this team could explode. Ja'Marr Chase is the best WR I saw in all of college football last year and without Jefferson next to him, I expect him to even be better. Harris is my last pick because his talent and ability to bully defenders is something you don't see very often. Alabama has plenty of weapons at QB and WR, but expect Najee to be that leader and carry this team for Saban and Co.

I'd love to debate this more so drop some comments in and we can have some disagreements.

My Big Ten QB Rankings are as follows... I will put the school and the starter in parentheses:

14. Maryland (Jackson)
13. Northwestern (Johnson)
12. Purdue (Plummer)
11. Illinois (Peters)
10. Iowa (Petras)
9. Rutgers (Vedral) - Probably 12 or 13 if it's not Vedral
8. Michigan State (Lombardi)
7. Indiana (Penix Jr) - based on upside
6. Wisconsin (Coan) - to start the season, but once Mertz takes this offense over, "the roof is the ceiling"
5. Michigan (McCaffrey)
4. Minnesota (Morgan)
3. Nebraska (Martinez) - I'm hoping he can take the necessary steps forward unlike last year but his upside is there. Even if it's McCaffrey I still put it here because of the system and upside of these dual-threat QBs (and the weapons around them)
2. Penn State (Clifford)
1. Ohio State (Fields)

Let the arguments/debates begin. Can't wait for the season and hope this sparks that fire under all of us that we desperately need today!! Leave any reviews as well.

-Reeder
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Who do you have being the more efficient this season? Newman or Trask? I would assume Trask since he is in your top 5?
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
I think Monken is a brilliant offensive mind and pair him with a talent like Jamie Newman and you could get something dangerous. Newman reminds me a lot of Cam Newton, with a little more speed. He is such a relaxed QB in the pocket and natural outside of it. Watch the film from Wake Forest and the hype makes sense. 10-1 odds for Newman seems like a perfect spot for me because this receiving corps is getting better. They were so young last year, but I see a big jump from them this year. Pickens is a beast standing at 6'4 and has some burner wheels too. I'm all in on Newman this for UGA.
Click to expand...


Well done. Yes, that was a test of your CFB knowledge.

Pickens was the best FR WR in the country last year. He was the only WR in all of CFB with 75 plus targets and zero drops.

Thing is, he was put in a position where he had to be. UGA's WR corps had so many injuries it was ridiculous, with no less than 6 different WRs missing substantial time because of injury. Former 5-stars, Dominic Blaylock and Demetris Robertson, will be back and healthy. Add in the 4 4-star WRs incoming this year as Freshmen, Newman will have no shortage of talent to throw to.
 
CFBHomeFifthQuarter said:
Who do you have being the more efficient this season? Newman or Trask? I would assume Trask since he is in your top 5?
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Trask in my top 5 since he's a dark horse with 50-1 odds especially with weapons everywhere around him. Newman at 10-1 isn't a dark horse since he's got the third-best odds to win it. With that being said, I would take Trask because he is far more consistent and accurate. Trask doesn't have the upside Newman has IMO for several reasons, but the efficiency he displayed last year is better. Stats speak for themselves and Trask had nearly 3000 yards, 25 TDs, and 7 INTs in the SEC (much better defenses). Newman was just south of 2900 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 INTs in the ACC (weaker competition). I do think Monken and the offensive talent at UGA will take Newman to the next step. The biggest defense you can have for Newman is that his rushing ability (574 yards) compared to Trask (8 yards) is far superior. I think the safe bet is Trask, but Newman could break out alongside Monken and a better coaching staff overall.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
Trask will be more efficient IMO. Newman is a risk taker. Frankly, I like that. It's a Risk/Reward thing. Remember...Deshaun Watson threw 17 INTs in 2016 for Clemson. But he also threw 41 TDs and won a Natty.
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Exactly why I am huge on Newman. The game is evolving into a gunslinger style of game (Mahomes, Watson, Rodgers, Winston) so in order to take that step to win a Natty you need a Newman style of play. Gunslingers with mobility are nearly impossible to gameplan for as well. Great point on Watson too. Actually, I almost brought that up in my last reply until I saw your comment. Watson is a dude, yet he threw 30 picks in his last 2 years at Clemson.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
Well done. Yes, that was a test of your CFB knowledge.

Pickens was the best FR WR in the country last year. He was the only WR in all of CFB with 75 plus targets and zero drops.

Thing is, he was put in a position where he had to be. UGA's WR corps had so many injuries it was ridiculous, with no less than 6 different WRs missing substantial time because of injury. Former 5-stars, Dominic Blaylock and Demetris Robertson, will be back and healthy. Add in the 4 4-star WRs incoming this year as Freshmen, Newman will have no shortage of talent to throw to.
Click to expand...
Love the test man! I encourage comments like that. I agree with Pickens and the weapons Newman will have this year. Georgia has been stacking up in the recruiting ranks so to see that skill-position talent on a defensive-minded team will be really fun to watch. Get your popcorn ready for Florida vs Georgia cause that is one hell of a matchup.
 
Husker-Reeder1 said:
Trask in my top 5 since he's a dark horse with 50-1 odds especially with weapons everywhere around him. Newman at 10-1 isn't a dark horse since he's got the third-best odds to win it. With that being said, I would take Trask because he is far more consistent and accurate. Trask doesn't have the upside Newman has IMO for several reasons, but the efficiency he displayed last year is better. Stats speak for themselves and Trask had nearly 3000 yards, 25 TDs, and 7 INTs in the SEC (much better defenses). Newman was just south of 2900 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 INTs in the ACC (weaker competition). I do think Monken and the offensive talent at UGA will take Newman to the next step. The biggest defense you can have for Newman is that his rushing ability (574 yards) compared to Trask (8 yards) is far superior. I think the safe bet is Trask, but Newman could break out alongside Monken and a better coaching staff overall.
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Personally, I was more impressed with Newman's "tight window" percentage last year. Him being a true dual threat definitely plays into Monken's offense, but I really like his lack of fear when he relies on his arm.
 
That is true the man is fearless!! Good point on the tight window percentage cause I had to go look that up just now to actually see the numbers. I noticed a couple things on film regarding his big frame and ability to lower the shoulder. Sometimes he struggles with forcing a football when he has 10 yards of running room but risk/reward will even that out. He was good in tight window stuff, but missed some wide open receivers sometimes imo.
 
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