NoleKing
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2023 FSU Season Preview: The Big Jump
The Year that was 2022
FSU, and more importantly, Mike Norvell, entered the 2022 season with some heat underneath them. While not exactly a scorching hot seat as the school/fanbase had been preaching patience, another losing season and failure to make a bowl in year 3 would certainly cause some hard, serious end of year conversations. Thankfully, Dirty Mike and the boys rose to the occasion from the jump.
A one bite scarfing of cupcake Duquesne to open the year got the winless first game streak out of the way. Wins over LSU off a blocked PAT and an off the bench comeback from QB Tate Rodemaker on the road against Louisville was followed up with an old school first half blowout of BC leaving the Noles feeling good at 4-0 for the first time in 7 years.
However, in a humbling 3 game stretch that saw FSU lose a competitive game to Wake, a heartbreaker to NC State, and a disappointing performance in primetime against Clemson, FSU learned that it still wasn’t as further along as believed and key injuries were still tough to overcome.
The Noles took advantage of their bye to regroup, get healthy, and go on an absolute 4 game tear beating GT, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana by an average of 33 points, highlighted by a 42 point blowout in Miami (2 years after The Canes put a 42 point win on the Noles in the same stadium). The good guys would wrap up the season with back to back harder than they shoulda been on paper wins against Florida and Oklahoma in the Cheez-it Bow, but it still meant a six game (active) winning streak to end the year and get FSU 10 wins for the first time since 2016.
The 2022 season was one of both growth and growing pains for a staff and program still building and learning. Can they take the lessons from 2022 and put them into the dream season in 2023? Well that all depends on the guys in the pads….
Positions of Strengths:
QB, RB, WR, OL, CB, Interior DL
-Jordan Travis has a chance to put himself on the mountain with Ward, Wink and Jameis; RB Trey Benson may be the best back in America; WR went from the worst unit in the league two year ago, to arguably the 2nd best in the country (obviously behind Ohio State); O-Line is deep and experienced which has been a long build in the process; Corner upgraded with Fentrell Cypress and Renardo Green is a tough dude on the other side.
Positions of Questions
-Depth on Dline, last year FSU had a 3 game skid cause they were beat up in the interior d-line; Physicality in the secondary, FSU also got bullied a bit in their losses and close games last year in the back 7; The Kicking game, Fitzgerald was shakey and that’s being generous and Mastrimano is an ok punter. Losing Mycha Pittman brings up a question about who is going to bring back punts.
Season Prediction and Outlook
LSU (Orlando)-W: Last year these two played a thriller that literally came down to the last untimed play. I expect nothing different this year. While LSU does have the overall better depth, I’m going to lean FSU pulling one out in the final minutes again due to the matchups in the skill vs secondary and the QB play of Travis. I’m going with my gut over my head on this one.
Southern Miss-W: This has been a traditional tricky spot for FSU over the years. The week 2 cupcake following the big Labor Day Weekend matchup. This is a low key measuring stick game to see how FSU comes out. Sluggish and slow or ready to jump early and put the team out of it like they did a lot last year. FSU wins, but how they do it is the key.
@ BC-W: The Eagles were embarrassed by FSU last year. They’ve lost Zay Flowers to the NFL and Phil Jurkovic to Pitt. On paper this should be a breeze. Buuuutttt, BC is a year older on the o-line and the defense will be traditionally salty. The BC band will be obnoxious as hell and with Clemson a week away, this noon kickoff could be a sleepy start for FSU who will eventually pull away in the second half to cover a spread, but you may wanna take BC first half (Bud Ingram approved)
@ Clemson-L: The biggest game of the year in the ACC comes in late september. Can FSU snap the 7 game losing streak to the Tigers and announce themselves back as the lead dog of this conference? I’d really like to say yes, but this is one of those I’m going to have to see first before I can commit to it. Tigers have the run game and defense to keep FSU off the field and off balance enough to win.
Virginia Tech-W: The Noles come off the well placed bye week ready to put the Clemson L behind them and still with all the goals of the season ahead of them. The Hokies play hard for Brent Pry, but that’s about the most positive thing you can say about them. They’re still a major work in progress. FSU gets back on track.
Syracuse-W: The Orange have been a competitive team, particularly early in seasons under DIno Babers. They have some pieces, in particular QB Garret Shrader and TE Orande Gadsen II to frustrate defenses and keep them in games. Cuse push FSU into the 2nd half but the Noles hold firm.
Duke-W: The first game of a season defining 4 game stretch brings the surprise team of the league the Duke Blue Devils to Doak. Mike Elko had a great year 1 and they bring back some key guys from the run. But Duke is the only ACC team to never have beaten FSU and as mentioned before, I’ll have to see a Duke win before I predict one.
@Wake-W: The Deacs lost Sam Hartman but they’re still Wake. Which means an older roster and a slow mesh system that bores the hell out of you until you look up and find yourself down ten points. FSU wins this because they finally have the offense that can score enough big plays to keep the pace and force Wake off their game.
@ Pitt-L: And thus we reach the game that knocks FSU out of playoff contention. I really hope I’m wrong on this one as I will be in attendance with a whole lot of Yinzers. But Narduzzi always has a scrappy defense, an offense that does enough to keep them in the game and they have an old Pickett man at QB like Jurkovic. And just the placement of a potentially chilly night on the the point with Miami lends me to think Pitt edges out FSU in a slug fest and I have a long, hungover turnpike drive home the next day.
Miami-W: How streaky is this rivalry? Before FSU’s current 2 game streak; Miami won 4 in a row. Before that FSU won 7 in a row; before that the teams had an alternating streak of the road team winning every year. Before that FSU won 2 in a row. Before that Miami won 6 in a row. Before that FSU won 5 in a row…Point being? Go with the streak till it’s broken. FSU keeps ACC Title Game hopes alive and shakes off the PItt loss with a win over the Canes.
North Alabama-W: Senior Day sees Mike Norvell’s first true class go out in style. A blowout win to send the kids who’ve turned this program back around celebrating on the sideline in the second half.
@Florida-W: The Noles wrap up their first 10 win regular season since 2015 in the Swamp against a Florida team that should be better than they were a year ago, but may not reflect that in the records or against an FSU team that still has NY6 dreams and top line talent edge.
ACCCG vs Clemson-L: FSU heads to Charlotte with an already successful season in the eyes of most people. 10 wins and playing for the league is another solid step forward for the Norvell Noles. As for the game? Again, I’m gonna have to see a win against Dabo before I predict one.
Final Thought
Is FSU a National Championship team? No. It takes years of stacking elite high school recruiting to reach that point and FSU is just starting to put a class like that together.
However, Is FSU a playoff contender? Yes. They belong firmly in the tier with LSU/PSU/USC/Oregon/Clemson that all could make a case as playoff teams that will most likely find themselves handily defeated by Georgia, Ohio State, Bama.
While there could be some disappointment if FSU fails to win the league or make an appearance, the perspective should at its core be that FSU is finally in a much better place than it was a short couple of years ago and the dark days are behind them. Let’s keep enjoying the climb and the build. The chase is always the best part.
The Year that was 2022
FSU, and more importantly, Mike Norvell, entered the 2022 season with some heat underneath them. While not exactly a scorching hot seat as the school/fanbase had been preaching patience, another losing season and failure to make a bowl in year 3 would certainly cause some hard, serious end of year conversations. Thankfully, Dirty Mike and the boys rose to the occasion from the jump.
A one bite scarfing of cupcake Duquesne to open the year got the winless first game streak out of the way. Wins over LSU off a blocked PAT and an off the bench comeback from QB Tate Rodemaker on the road against Louisville was followed up with an old school first half blowout of BC leaving the Noles feeling good at 4-0 for the first time in 7 years.
However, in a humbling 3 game stretch that saw FSU lose a competitive game to Wake, a heartbreaker to NC State, and a disappointing performance in primetime against Clemson, FSU learned that it still wasn’t as further along as believed and key injuries were still tough to overcome.
The Noles took advantage of their bye to regroup, get healthy, and go on an absolute 4 game tear beating GT, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana by an average of 33 points, highlighted by a 42 point blowout in Miami (2 years after The Canes put a 42 point win on the Noles in the same stadium). The good guys would wrap up the season with back to back harder than they shoulda been on paper wins against Florida and Oklahoma in the Cheez-it Bow, but it still meant a six game (active) winning streak to end the year and get FSU 10 wins for the first time since 2016.
The 2022 season was one of both growth and growing pains for a staff and program still building and learning. Can they take the lessons from 2022 and put them into the dream season in 2023? Well that all depends on the guys in the pads….
Positions of Strengths:
QB, RB, WR, OL, CB, Interior DL
-Jordan Travis has a chance to put himself on the mountain with Ward, Wink and Jameis; RB Trey Benson may be the best back in America; WR went from the worst unit in the league two year ago, to arguably the 2nd best in the country (obviously behind Ohio State); O-Line is deep and experienced which has been a long build in the process; Corner upgraded with Fentrell Cypress and Renardo Green is a tough dude on the other side.
Positions of Questions
-Depth on Dline, last year FSU had a 3 game skid cause they were beat up in the interior d-line; Physicality in the secondary, FSU also got bullied a bit in their losses and close games last year in the back 7; The Kicking game, Fitzgerald was shakey and that’s being generous and Mastrimano is an ok punter. Losing Mycha Pittman brings up a question about who is going to bring back punts.
Season Prediction and Outlook
LSU (Orlando)-W: Last year these two played a thriller that literally came down to the last untimed play. I expect nothing different this year. While LSU does have the overall better depth, I’m going to lean FSU pulling one out in the final minutes again due to the matchups in the skill vs secondary and the QB play of Travis. I’m going with my gut over my head on this one.
Southern Miss-W: This has been a traditional tricky spot for FSU over the years. The week 2 cupcake following the big Labor Day Weekend matchup. This is a low key measuring stick game to see how FSU comes out. Sluggish and slow or ready to jump early and put the team out of it like they did a lot last year. FSU wins, but how they do it is the key.
@ BC-W: The Eagles were embarrassed by FSU last year. They’ve lost Zay Flowers to the NFL and Phil Jurkovic to Pitt. On paper this should be a breeze. Buuuutttt, BC is a year older on the o-line and the defense will be traditionally salty. The BC band will be obnoxious as hell and with Clemson a week away, this noon kickoff could be a sleepy start for FSU who will eventually pull away in the second half to cover a spread, but you may wanna take BC first half (Bud Ingram approved)
@ Clemson-L: The biggest game of the year in the ACC comes in late september. Can FSU snap the 7 game losing streak to the Tigers and announce themselves back as the lead dog of this conference? I’d really like to say yes, but this is one of those I’m going to have to see first before I can commit to it. Tigers have the run game and defense to keep FSU off the field and off balance enough to win.
Virginia Tech-W: The Noles come off the well placed bye week ready to put the Clemson L behind them and still with all the goals of the season ahead of them. The Hokies play hard for Brent Pry, but that’s about the most positive thing you can say about them. They’re still a major work in progress. FSU gets back on track.
Syracuse-W: The Orange have been a competitive team, particularly early in seasons under DIno Babers. They have some pieces, in particular QB Garret Shrader and TE Orande Gadsen II to frustrate defenses and keep them in games. Cuse push FSU into the 2nd half but the Noles hold firm.
Duke-W: The first game of a season defining 4 game stretch brings the surprise team of the league the Duke Blue Devils to Doak. Mike Elko had a great year 1 and they bring back some key guys from the run. But Duke is the only ACC team to never have beaten FSU and as mentioned before, I’ll have to see a Duke win before I predict one.
@Wake-W: The Deacs lost Sam Hartman but they’re still Wake. Which means an older roster and a slow mesh system that bores the hell out of you until you look up and find yourself down ten points. FSU wins this because they finally have the offense that can score enough big plays to keep the pace and force Wake off their game.
@ Pitt-L: And thus we reach the game that knocks FSU out of playoff contention. I really hope I’m wrong on this one as I will be in attendance with a whole lot of Yinzers. But Narduzzi always has a scrappy defense, an offense that does enough to keep them in the game and they have an old Pickett man at QB like Jurkovic. And just the placement of a potentially chilly night on the the point with Miami lends me to think Pitt edges out FSU in a slug fest and I have a long, hungover turnpike drive home the next day.
Miami-W: How streaky is this rivalry? Before FSU’s current 2 game streak; Miami won 4 in a row. Before that FSU won 7 in a row; before that the teams had an alternating streak of the road team winning every year. Before that FSU won 2 in a row. Before that Miami won 6 in a row. Before that FSU won 5 in a row…Point being? Go with the streak till it’s broken. FSU keeps ACC Title Game hopes alive and shakes off the PItt loss with a win over the Canes.
North Alabama-W: Senior Day sees Mike Norvell’s first true class go out in style. A blowout win to send the kids who’ve turned this program back around celebrating on the sideline in the second half.
@Florida-W: The Noles wrap up their first 10 win regular season since 2015 in the Swamp against a Florida team that should be better than they were a year ago, but may not reflect that in the records or against an FSU team that still has NY6 dreams and top line talent edge.
ACCCG vs Clemson-L: FSU heads to Charlotte with an already successful season in the eyes of most people. 10 wins and playing for the league is another solid step forward for the Norvell Noles. As for the game? Again, I’m gonna have to see a win against Dabo before I predict one.
Final Thought
Is FSU a National Championship team? No. It takes years of stacking elite high school recruiting to reach that point and FSU is just starting to put a class like that together.
However, Is FSU a playoff contender? Yes. They belong firmly in the tier with LSU/PSU/USC/Oregon/Clemson that all could make a case as playoff teams that will most likely find themselves handily defeated by Georgia, Ohio State, Bama.
While there could be some disappointment if FSU fails to win the league or make an appearance, the perspective should at its core be that FSU is finally in a much better place than it was a short couple of years ago and the dark days are behind them. Let’s keep enjoying the climb and the build. The chase is always the best part.
