Where do you think your favorite team will go bowling?

Irishblooded

Irishblooded

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Bonus points for projected opponent

For ND, will most likely play in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando on December 28

will be against B12. Most likely opponents are

Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Texas

all tied in conference play at 5-4 for 3rd place.

@CowpokeU
@midcal
 
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@Bama Believer there really isnt a path for a Bama - ND game without radical chaos this weekend.

@MarineG8R there is an outside chance ND could get the Orange Bowl. Although I really hope they dont. Because I dont think ND is good enough this year for one. Even though I think Florida and ND match up well
 
Irishblooded said:
@Bama Believer there really isnt a path for a Bama - ND game without radical chaos this weekend.

@MarineG8R there is an outside chance ND could get the Orange Bowl. Although I really hope they dont. Because I dont think ND is good enough this year for one. Even though I think Florida and ND match up well
Click to expand...

I'd love to see UF vs ND

Here is a solid read on possible outcomes

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ridas-new-years-six-outlook-after-key-upsets/



GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We've been keeping you as apprised as we can of the latest outlook on Florida's New Year's Six bowl picture over the past few weeks, and after a couple key results that likely impacted the Gators over the weekend, it's time to break things down again.

First and foremost, Florida finished its season at 10-2 with a win over Florida State, something that we expected but was still absolutely necessary for the Gators to make a second straight New Year's Six bowl.

As Dan Mullen put it, Florida should be in.

"Hopefully we did enough to get a New Year’s Six Bowl, maybe even more," Mullen said. "I saw, right, Baylor beat a 6-win team last week and jumped up five spots. We did the same thing (Saturday), pretty handily, so we’ll see how that is."

As we've previously outlined, there are three potential New Year's Six bowl slots for Florida: the Sugar, the Orange and the Cotton. Here are the contractual ties for those bowls.

Sugar -- Takes the highest-ranked SEC team that is not in the College Football Playoff.
Orange -- Takes the highest-ranked team between Notre Dame, the Big Ten and the SEC that is not in the College Football Playoff or contractually obligated to the Sugar or Rose bowls.
Cotton -- Takes the highest-ranked team remaining after the rest of the contractually-obligated slots have been filled.

So let's first break down Florida's presumed position for a few of these possibilities based on how the rankings might shake out.

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO THE SEC

First let's look at how Florida will likely finish in the rankings against the other SEC teams, as that is the biggest determining factor in which of those three bowls the Gators are most likely to be vying for.

With No. 2 LSU, No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama ahead of Florida in last weekend's rankings, the best the Gators could have hoped for had those rankings held would have been the Orange Bowl. Assuming those rankings finished as the final rankings, LSU and Georgia would have gone to the playoff, while Alabama would have taken the Sugar Bowl. That would have left Florida against the Big Ten and Notre Dame for the Orange Bowl, and if it slipped past that, it would have left the Cotton Bowl as the last remaining option.

However, because Alabama lost to Auburn this weekend the outlook could shift substantially.

In our view, there isn't much of a case for Alabama to remain ranked ahead of Florida at this point. Both teams have two losses and Florida has both better wins and a common-opponent differentiator having beaten Auburn, the team Alabama just lost to.

Florida's strength of schedule ranks 26th nationally, according to the Sagarin metrics, while Alabama's ranks just 53rd.

But it's obviously no guarantee that the CFP rankings will actually have Florida ahead of Alabama. That'll be one of the most key aspects in watching Tuesday's newest rankings reveal.

There's also the possibility, though, that Auburn could leap Florida based on the quality of its win over Alabama. That case, again, isn't super compelling to us, but who knows how the committee views it. The Tigers have wins over No. 5 Alabama and No. 14 Oregon (a more impressive offering of wins than UF), but they also have three losses against the Gators' two and Florida won the head-to-head meeting. It just doesn't seem fair to us to move Auburn ahead of Florida, but that's also worth monitoring.

In any case, if Florida is the third-ranked SEC team -- that's what we'd project at this point, behind Georgia and LSU and ahead of Alabama and Auburn -- then the scenario gets pretty straightforward.

If both Georgia and LSU are in the playoff, then Florida heads to the Sugar Bowl. If only one is in, then whether the Gators go to the Sugar Bowl or slide into competition for the Orange Bowl slot depends on Georgia's ranking (and it's pretty unlikely even with a blowout loss in the SEC title game that Georgia would fall below Florida given the head-to-head win this year).

So let's move on to the Orange Bowl outlook, which is going to also factor in the rankings of the teams in the Big Ten.

________

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO THE BIG TEN

We'll just say off the bat that while Notre Dame technically factors into the Orange Bowl slot contractually, the Fighting Irish aren't ranked high enough to be selected here.

It's Florida vs. the Big Ten.

It's our thinking that No. 8 Minnesota's loss to No. 12 Wisconsin was a good thing for Florida. One of the big issues in last weekend's rankings that affected the Gators was No. 10 Penn State remaining ahead of No. 11 Florida.

That left an extra potential team to account for when it comes to the Orange Bowl slot.

So here's how the Big Ten picture shakes out. No. 1 Ohio State is currently heavily favored to reach the playoff with a Big Ten championship game win over No. 12 Wisconsin. The real question is what the committee does with Minnesota and Wisconsin after the Big Ten title game assuming Ohio State wins.

Our thinking is that Minnesota is likely to drop behind Florida this week, and that's the most important thing to watch. Minnesota's Sagarin strength of schedule is 59th compared to Florida's 26th, and both are 1-2 against Sagarin Top 30 teams. Given that Minnesota's loss is more recent and the Golden Gophers wouldn't have to far fall to drop behind the Gators, such a drop seems likely.

That leaves Wisconsin's ranking to watch. The Badgers don't have a particularly tough schedule either, ranked 38th, but they do have a 3-1 record against the Sagarin Top 30. Wisconsin will probably jump Florida this week. What happens with the Badgers the following week is more important.

So Florida might not just need Ohio State to win in the Big Ten title game, it might need the Buckeyes to blow out the Badgers just to be safe. Whether a two-loss Florida ranks ahead of a three-loss Wisconsin (whose third loss is in a title game) is key.

Here's how the Big Ten contractual picture looks.

If Ohio State is in the playoff, the next-highest-ranked Big Ten team will take the Rose Bowl. After that, the third-highest-ranked Big Ten team would be vying with the highest-ranked SEC team not in the playoffs or the Sugar Bowl for the Orange Bowl bid.

Essentially, Florida can't be ranked behind three Big Ten teams if it wants the Orange Bowl slot. Because Penn State was ranked ahead last week, that's dicey.

So things to keep an eye on this week in the rankings: just how high Wisconsin jumps, whether Minnesota does in fact drop behind Florida and whether Florida somehow jumps Penn State despite both winning this weekend.

If Florida is ahead of all but two Big Ten teams and Ohio State is in the playoff, the Gators are looking good for the Orange Bowl.

Now let's say that for whatever reason the Gators slip past both the Sugar and Orange bowls and are forced to vie for the Cotton.

________

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO OTHER AT-LARGE HOPEFULS

The Cotton Bowl will select the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion as it is contractually obligated to this year. The second team it selects will be the highest-ranked team not contractually obligated to another New Year's Six bowl.

Essentially, any team that's not in the playoffs or the Rose, Sugar or Orange bowls can be selected here.

So what other teams does that put in the mix if Florida falls past the Orange?

There are a few key ones to watch, but contractual obligations to other bowls also impact the picture here. Right now, No. 6 Utah, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 9 Baylor and No. 14 Oregon are the key teams to watch.

That makes it important to break down the process for the Big 12 and Pac-12 when it comes to contractual obligations. The Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Big 12 team not in the playoff, while the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Pac-12 team not in the playoff.

The danger for Florida when it comes to the Cotton Bowl is that it has already slipped past the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl -- again, extremely unlikely if Florida ranks ahead of both Alabama and Auburn and doesn't trail three Big Ten teams in this week's rankings -- and either the Big 12 or Pac-12 gets left out of the playoff and the second team in the pair snags the Cotton Bowl bid ahead of Florida.

OK, that was a mouthful.

Basically, if Florida falls to Cotton Bowl contention, the danger is in Oregon beating Utah and neither making the playoffs (sending Oregon to the Rose Bowl) with Utah finishing ahead of Florida in the rankings (allowing Utah to beat out Florida for the Cotton Bowl slot) OR Baylor beating Oklahoma (sending Baylor to the Sugar Bowl) with neither making the playoffs and Oklahoma finishing ranked ahead of Florida (allowing Oklahoma to beat out Florida for the Cotton Bowl slot). In the Big 12, that scenario could probably even be flipped; it's possible that Oklahoma could win the Big 12, miss the playoffs and take the Sugar Bowl slot, while Baylor remains ranked ahead of Florida to steal the Cotton Bowl bid.

Still, as you can see, a lot has to go wrong for Florida to miss out on the New Year's Six
________
 
MarineG8R said:
I'd love to see UF vs ND

Here is a solid read on possible outcomes

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ridas-new-years-six-outlook-after-key-upsets/



GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We've been keeping you as apprised as we can of the latest outlook on Florida's New Year's Six bowl picture over the past few weeks, and after a couple key results that likely impacted the Gators over the weekend, it's time to break things down again.

First and foremost, Florida finished its season at 10-2 with a win over Florida State, something that we expected but was still absolutely necessary for the Gators to make a second straight New Year's Six bowl.

As Dan Mullen put it, Florida should be in.

"Hopefully we did enough to get a New Year’s Six Bowl, maybe even more," Mullen said. "I saw, right, Baylor beat a 6-win team last week and jumped up five spots. We did the same thing (Saturday), pretty handily, so we’ll see how that is."

As we've previously outlined, there are three potential New Year's Six bowl slots for Florida: the Sugar, the Orange and the Cotton. Here are the contractual ties for those bowls.

Sugar -- Takes the highest-ranked SEC team that is not in the College Football Playoff.
Orange -- Takes the highest-ranked team between Notre Dame, the Big Ten and the SEC that is not in the College Football Playoff or contractually obligated to the Sugar or Rose bowls.
Cotton -- Takes the highest-ranked team remaining after the rest of the contractually-obligated slots have been filled.

So let's first break down Florida's presumed position for a few of these possibilities based on how the rankings might shake out.

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO THE SEC

First let's look at how Florida will likely finish in the rankings against the other SEC teams, as that is the biggest determining factor in which of those three bowls the Gators are most likely to be vying for.

With No. 2 LSU, No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama ahead of Florida in last weekend's rankings, the best the Gators could have hoped for had those rankings held would have been the Orange Bowl. Assuming those rankings finished as the final rankings, LSU and Georgia would have gone to the playoff, while Alabama would have taken the Sugar Bowl. That would have left Florida against the Big Ten and Notre Dame for the Orange Bowl, and if it slipped past that, it would have left the Cotton Bowl as the last remaining option.

However, because Alabama lost to Auburn this weekend the outlook could shift substantially.

In our view, there isn't much of a case for Alabama to remain ranked ahead of Florida at this point. Both teams have two losses and Florida has both better wins and a common-opponent differentiator having beaten Auburn, the team Alabama just lost to.

Florida's strength of schedule ranks 26th nationally, according to the Sagarin metrics, while Alabama's ranks just 53rd.

But it's obviously no guarantee that the CFP rankings will actually have Florida ahead of Alabama. That'll be one of the most key aspects in watching Tuesday's newest rankings reveal.

There's also the possibility, though, that Auburn could leap Florida based on the quality of its win over Alabama. That case, again, isn't super compelling to us, but who knows how the committee views it. The Tigers have wins over No. 5 Alabama and No. 14 Oregon (a more impressive offering of wins than UF), but they also have three losses against the Gators' two and Florida won the head-to-head meeting. It just doesn't seem fair to us to move Auburn ahead of Florida, but that's also worth monitoring.

In any case, if Florida is the third-ranked SEC team -- that's what we'd project at this point, behind Georgia and LSU and ahead of Alabama and Auburn -- then the scenario gets pretty straightforward.

If both Georgia and LSU are in the playoff, then Florida heads to the Sugar Bowl. If only one is in, then whether the Gators go to the Sugar Bowl or slide into competition for the Orange Bowl slot depends on Georgia's ranking (and it's pretty unlikely even with a blowout loss in the SEC title game that Georgia would fall below Florida given the head-to-head win this year).

So let's move on to the Orange Bowl outlook, which is going to also factor in the rankings of the teams in the Big Ten.

________

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO THE BIG TEN

We'll just say off the bat that while Notre Dame technically factors into the Orange Bowl slot contractually, the Fighting Irish aren't ranked high enough to be selected here.

It's Florida vs. the Big Ten.

It's our thinking that No. 8 Minnesota's loss to No. 12 Wisconsin was a good thing for Florida. One of the big issues in last weekend's rankings that affected the Gators was No. 10 Penn State remaining ahead of No. 11 Florida.

That left an extra potential team to account for when it comes to the Orange Bowl slot.

So here's how the Big Ten picture shakes out. No. 1 Ohio State is currently heavily favored to reach the playoff with a Big Ten championship game win over No. 12 Wisconsin. The real question is what the committee does with Minnesota and Wisconsin after the Big Ten title game assuming Ohio State wins.

Our thinking is that Minnesota is likely to drop behind Florida this week, and that's the most important thing to watch. Minnesota's Sagarin strength of schedule is 59th compared to Florida's 26th, and both are 1-2 against Sagarin Top 30 teams. Given that Minnesota's loss is more recent and the Golden Gophers wouldn't have to far fall to drop behind the Gators, such a drop seems likely.

That leaves Wisconsin's ranking to watch. The Badgers don't have a particularly tough schedule either, ranked 38th, but they do have a 3-1 record against the Sagarin Top 30. Wisconsin will probably jump Florida this week. What happens with the Badgers the following week is more important.

So Florida might not just need Ohio State to win in the Big Ten title game, it might need the Buckeyes to blow out the Badgers just to be safe. Whether a two-loss Florida ranks ahead of a three-loss Wisconsin (whose third loss is in a title game) is key.

Here's how the Big Ten contractual picture looks.

If Ohio State is in the playoff, the next-highest-ranked Big Ten team will take the Rose Bowl. After that, the third-highest-ranked Big Ten team would be vying with the highest-ranked SEC team not in the playoffs or the Sugar Bowl for the Orange Bowl bid.

Essentially, Florida can't be ranked behind three Big Ten teams if it wants the Orange Bowl slot. Because Penn State was ranked ahead last week, that's dicey.

So things to keep an eye on this week in the rankings: just how high Wisconsin jumps, whether Minnesota does in fact drop behind Florida and whether Florida somehow jumps Penn State despite both winning this weekend.

If Florida is ahead of all but two Big Ten teams and Ohio State is in the playoff, the Gators are looking good for the Orange Bowl.

Now let's say that for whatever reason the Gators slip past both the Sugar and Orange bowls and are forced to vie for the Cotton.

________

FLORIDA'S RANKING RELATIVE TO OTHER AT-LARGE HOPEFULS

The Cotton Bowl will select the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion as it is contractually obligated to this year. The second team it selects will be the highest-ranked team not contractually obligated to another New Year's Six bowl.

Essentially, any team that's not in the playoffs or the Rose, Sugar or Orange bowls can be selected here.

So what other teams does that put in the mix if Florida falls past the Orange?

There are a few key ones to watch, but contractual obligations to other bowls also impact the picture here. Right now, No. 6 Utah, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 9 Baylor and No. 14 Oregon are the key teams to watch.

That makes it important to break down the process for the Big 12 and Pac-12 when it comes to contractual obligations. The Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Big 12 team not in the playoff, while the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Pac-12 team not in the playoff.

The danger for Florida when it comes to the Cotton Bowl is that it has already slipped past the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl -- again, extremely unlikely if Florida ranks ahead of both Alabama and Auburn and doesn't trail three Big Ten teams in this week's rankings -- and either the Big 12 or Pac-12 gets left out of the playoff and the second team in the pair snags the Cotton Bowl bid ahead of Florida.

OK, that was a mouthful.

Basically, if Florida falls to Cotton Bowl contention, the danger is in Oregon beating Utah and neither making the playoffs (sending Oregon to the Rose Bowl) with Utah finishing ahead of Florida in the rankings (allowing Utah to beat out Florida for the Cotton Bowl slot) OR Baylor beating Oklahoma (sending Baylor to the Sugar Bowl) with neither making the playoffs and Oklahoma finishing ranked ahead of Florida (allowing Oklahoma to beat out Florida for the Cotton Bowl slot). In the Big 12, that scenario could probably even be flipped; it's possible that Oklahoma could win the Big 12, miss the playoffs and take the Sugar Bowl slot, while Baylor remains ranked ahead of Florida to steal the Cotton Bowl bid.

Still, as you can see, a lot has to go wrong for Florida to miss out on the New Year's Six
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That’s a lot of words
 
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