The Bog of Eternal Stench

Copejunkie said:
But what does that second wave look like? Will it be "as bad" as the first wave or will we find out alot more people were exposed than originally thought and it is a bunch of unwarranted handwringing. Now granted the elderly and others with preexisting conditions definitely have more to worry about. It's in the local nursing home here and I know of at least one death so far, the gentleman was 90 something, had 20 some stints put in over the years and was the landowner of some ground we farm. Funeral is tomorrow.
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If it's anything like the Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 1900s, the second wave will be worse in that it will affect more middle ages. The first wave back then pretty much took out the weakest (old and young). The second wave was somewhat unexpected as it waned drastically during the summer and folks thought it was over. There was very little "social distancing" and PPE when the second wave hit and it hit everywhere pretty much all at once.

There was actually a minor 3rd wave as well.

Knowing that it's coming and taking certain precautions may help suppress it somewhat, but it's gonna happen. I personally wouldn't shut down the economy for it. IMO, that's insane.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
If it's anything like the Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 1900s, the second wave will be worse in that it will affect more middle ages. The first wave back then pretty much took out the weakest (old and young). The second wave was somewhat unexpected as it waned drastically during the summer and folks thought it was over. There was very little "social distancing" and PPE when the second wave hit and it hit everywhere pretty much all at once.

There was actually a minor 3rd wave as well.

Knowing that it's coming and taking certain precautions may help suppress it somewhat, but it's gonna happen. I personally wouldn't shut down the economy for it. IMO, that's insane.
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It’s also possible that trying to compare the spread and waves of the 1918 pandemic to this one is futile. I’ve read Barry’s fantastic book, and my instinct is to draw parallels between that and this. But there are clearly incongruencies as well. The speed and pervasiveness of global travel is likely a significant accelerant of this spread compared to 1918, to the point that in reality we may have already seen the equivalent of multiple but somewhat seamless waves. Further, the speed and pervasiveness of communication is probably a significant suppressing influence when it comes to things such as distancing, quarantining, etc.

What does that all mean? Hell if I know, but I’m a bit surprised even the epidemiological experts are looking at 1918 as a parallel model without much contemplation of the differences between then and now.
 
Big 8 Rules said:
It’s also possible that trying to compare the spread and waves of the 1918 pandemic to this one is futile. I’ve read Barry’s fantastic book, and my instinct is to draw parallels between that and this. But there are clearly incongruencies as well. The speed and pervasiveness of global travel is likely a significant accelerant of this spread compared to 1918, to the point that in reality we may have already seen the equivalent of multiple but somewhat seamless waves. Further, the speed and pervasiveness of communication is probably a significant suppressing influence when it comes to things such as distancing, quarantining, etc.

What does that all mean? Hell if I know, but I’m a bit surprised even the epidemiological experts are looking at 1918 as a parallel model without much contemplation of the differences between then and now.
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Excellent analysis. Very legit questioning concerning the lack of explanation concerning how much "smaller" the world is today versus then. No doubt that will make for discrepancies in the predictions of those "so-called" experts. Still...our annual "Flu season" will show it's face again in the fall and we still won't have a vaccine. The likelihood of a resurgence is practically inevitable. @Copejunkie's question of how intense a second wave would be is legit. Will we find out that our "herd immunity" is bigger now than the powers that be suggest? We'll find out one way or another.

Keep in mind that I'm among those that believe that there's been a helluva lot more of us that have been exposed, caught it, and survived it without even knowing, than what those "people" in DC are reporting.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
Excellent analysis. Very legit questioning concerning the lack of explanation concerning how much "smaller" the world is today versus then. No doubt that will make for discrepancies in the predictions of those "so-called" experts. Still...our annual "Flu season" will show it's face again in the fall and we still won't have a vaccine. The likelihood of a resurgence is practically inevitable. @Copejunkie's question of how intense a second wave would be is legit. Will we find out that our "herd immunity" is bigger now than the powers that be suggest? We'll find out one way or another.

Keep in mind that I'm among those that believe that there's been a helluva lot more of us that have been exposed, caught it, and survived it without even knowing, than what those "people" in DC are reporting.
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I’ve thought that too. I think the death numbers lend themselves more readily to a relatively reasonable estimate than the infection numbers, which are likely very understated. I also think the two biggest wild cards in advance of any vaccine are 1) whether herd immunity even applies here given uncertainty around duration of any naturally obtained immunity, and 2) whether this coronavirus has seasonality consistent with most (perhaps even all) other coronaviruses.
 
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Big 8 Rules said:
I’ve thought that too. I think the death numbers lend themselves more readily to a relatively reasonable estimate than the infection numbers, which are likely very understated. I also think the two biggest wild cards in advance of any vaccine are 1) whether herd immunity even applies here given uncertainty around duration of any naturally obtained immunity, and 2) whether this coronavirus has seasonality consistent with most (perhaps even all) other coronaviruses.
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I'm no medical expert by any means, but I'll address both your wildcards with my simpleminded opinion.

1) IMO, herd immunity is nature's recourse in responding to any, and ALL viruses. It's been this way forever. Man is once again playing the arrogant fool to think we can steer nature.

2) Covid-19 like all other versions of coronavirus is a respiratory illness. "Flu season" is actually more correctly described as "respiratory illness" season. I do believe there will be a "2nd wave". Potentially more "waves" after that. Our only recourse is "herd immunity" or vaccine. I'm of the mentality that "herd immunity" will be the best response. As you suggested, any further "waves" might be diminished by facts we have no current knowledge of, but as I stated in my earlier post... shutting down our economy as a response is insanity at best.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
I'm no medical expert by any means, but I'll address both your wildcards with my simpleminded opinion.

1) IMO, herd immunity is nature's recourse in responding to any, and ALL viruses. It's been this way forever. Man is once again playing the arrogant fool to think we can steer nature.

2) Covid-19 like all other versions of coronavirus is a respiratory illness. "Flu season" is actually more correctly described as "respiratory illness" season. I do believe there will be a "2nd wave". Potentially more "waves" after that. Our only recourse is "herd immunity" or vaccine. I'm of the mentality that "herd immunity" will be the best response. As you suggested, any further "waves" might be diminished by facts we have no current knowledge of, but as I stated in my earlier post... shutting down our economy as a response is insanity at best.
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Agree on the most important point ... the last one.
 
Once that dude was on the ground, handcuffed, he is not a threat, for what happened.
I 100% support any persons right to protest. I do not support rioting, burning other people's shit. Looting the licker store, or trying to pry open an atm with a crowbar.
Do those folks realize, that taxes, that they pay, will go towards repair and replacement of the popo cars? Instead of going to help that community? Smfh.


Reason number 656, as to why "not" live in a medium to large city.
 
LyquidMetal said:
Try this out then.

How about when an egregious wrong has been committed and it's a white and black situation, rather than acting stereotypical with destroy loot and burn, conduct yourselves in a more civilized and educated manner?
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Cuz, Kaepernick says they should.
"When civility leads to death, revolting is the only logical reaction,” the failed quarterback tweeted.

“The cries for peace will rain down, and when they do, they will land on deaf ears, because your violence has brought this resistance. We have the right to fight back! Rest in Power George Floyd."
 
Toadman005 said:
Cuz, Kaepernick says they should.
"When civility leads to death, revolting is the only logical reaction,” the failed quarterback tweeted.

“The cries for peace will rain down, and when they do, they will land on deaf ears, because your violence has brought this resistance. We have the right to fight back! Rest in Power George Floyd."
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The actions are revolting.

Lemmee add this.
Are there bad cops? Sure. But how about law enforcement take a look at requirements and training. Have these been dumbed dow...er, lessened, in the name of equality?
 
Bamaklingon said:
Once that dude was on the ground, handcuffed, he is not a threat, for what happened.
I 100% support any persons right to protest. I do not support rioting, burning other people's shit. Looting the licker store, or trying to pry open an atm with a crowbar.
Do those folks realize, that taxes, that they pay, will go towards repair and replacement of the popo cars? Instead of going to help that community? Smfh.


Reason number 656, as to why "not" live in a medium to large city.
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No, taxes are paid by taxpayers. Most of those doing damage are receiving government checks and food stamps from the goverment.
 
LyquidMetal said:
The actions are revolting.

Lemmee add this.
Are there bad cops? Sure. But how about law enforcement take a look at requirements and training. Have these been dumbed dow...er, lessened, in the name of equality?
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Some get past the psyche test. Even the small department I worked for had them 20 years ago, this guy had 19 years on the job. 40 years ago the test was the bosses gut. His was right about 75% of the time. Worked with some doozies, but overall most were good cops...
 
There's a picture circulating showing this cop may have a history of excessive force...can't verify if true, much less context, but, damning looking.
 
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