OSU and WSU will probably win the legal battle. This will give them them the ability to keep the PAC 12 assets. I still think the most likely outcome is a merger with the MWC. Essentially the MWC would add OSU and WSU but they would brand themselves as the PAC and keep the PAC 12 infrastructure for themselves. GK will not be a part of that.
There's a less likely option where OSU and WSU try to pick and choose what teams they want from the AAC and the MWC. They would have to use the money from the PAC 12 infrastructure to buy those teams out. However, there are still 2 major hurdles preventing this from happening. The PAC 12 doesn't have a TV deal. Teams are unlikely to jump if they don't have a deal and don't know what they're going to be making. The other hurdle is the fact that OSU and WSU would like to keep a lot of the leftover PAC 12 money and valuable assets. They don't want to use it on buying teams out. A merger with the MWC prevents them from having to buy anyone out.
Agree with the probable legal outcome. I think it will depend on "notice of withdrawl". No matter what, I think they easily keep USC, UCLA, CU all out of the board voting, but I don't know if Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU, or Utah ever "officially" sent notice, so they may be able to vote, even after accepting invitations from other leagues. I truly doubt it, but you never know.
As to the process moving forward, I think a reverse merger is most likely, but have a few questions with that as well. I believe both conferences would keep all assets (including NCAAT credits), but:
- Would they have to buy out GK's contract
- Would they be able to renegotiate special payouts, like Boise State's additional $
- Would they be able to renegotiate the MWC contract with CBS and Fox - and could they get more $ per team?
- Would they be able to maintain their bowl agreements. It has already been reported many are looking for new partners, but where they all expiring?