Conference Realignment?

david_WVU

david_WVU

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Good day all. Curious to your thoughts on the conference realignment rumors. I have been entertained watching the tin foil hats on Twitter/YouTube - but now I am seeing actual reporters covering this (Pete Thamel, Brett McMurphy, Stewart Mandel, Max Olson, John Ourand, Andrew Marchand, Brady McCullough, Dennis Dodd). Is the PAC really in trouble???
 
All I want for Christmas ... well replace Oregon with Stanford.

uwb1g.jpg
 
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@AlaskaGuy - I think Stanford and Cal will go independent. From the rumor mill, Fox does not want to take another California school, as they don't feel they will get additional subscribers. Once the new B1G commissioner is hired, they will approve Washington and Oregon, if they can get enough of the Presidents to vote on it. That leaves 6 schools: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. The XII has wanted the "4 corner" schools since Yormark was hired. So I guess the Beavers and Wazzu are left out.
If all that happens, we will be down to a 2+2 model. The B1G/SEC will be making more than double what the ACC/XII will be making, and the PAC will be relegated to a glorified MWC or disbanded?

@OldDevilDawg - the beauty of the Rose Bowl has been missing since the BCS days. Maybe when they expand the playoffs, they can partially fix what they broke.
 
david_WVU said:
@AlaskaGuy - I think Stanford and Cal will go independent. From the rumor mill, Fox does not want to take another California school, as they don't feel they will get additional subscribers. Once the new B1G commissioner is hired, they will approve Washington and Oregon, if they can get enough of the Presidents to vote on it. That leaves 6 schools: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. The XII has wanted the "4 corner" schools since Yormark was hired. So I guess the Beavers and Wazzu are left out.
If all that happens, we will be down to a 2+2 model. The B1G/SEC will be making more than double what the ACC/XII will be making, and the PAC will be relegated to a glorified MWC or disbanded?

@OldDevilDawg - the beauty of the Rose Bowl has been missing since the BCS days. Maybe when they expand the playoffs, they can partially fix what they broke.
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247sports.com

Conference realignment: Oregon, Washington Big Ten consideration unlikely before mid-April, per report

...
247sports.com 247sports.com
 
david_WVU said:
Good day all. Curious to your thoughts on the conference realignment rumors. I have been entertained watching the tin foil hats on Twitter/YouTube - but now I am seeing actual reporters covering this (Pete Thamel, Brett McMurphy, Stewart Mandel, Max Olson, John Ourand, Andrew Marchand, Brady McCullough, Dennis Dodd). Is the PAC really in trouble???
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I still think it's more likely the PAC stays together for now but I doubt the league survives long term. UO and UW are eyeing the Big Ten and it does appear that door will be open at some point. I just don't know if it will be in the immediate future or more distant future.

My guess is eventually UO and UW jump to the Big Ten and the Big 12 picks up AZ, ASU, Utah and Colorado. The PAC backfills their conference with SDSU, SMU, Colorado State, Rice, Tulane and Air Force. The PAC would be better off adding better football brands like Fresno State or Boise State but Stanford/Cal are still going to make sure any school admitted fits the academic profile they're looking for.
 
david_WVU said:
Is the PAC really in trouble???
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IMHO yes, they are. They are struggling for a tv rights deal and may very well be the first conference to go with a streaming service. They have neither the viewers nor the public interest to pull it off successfully. At best, they will be a G5 conference but the most likely scenario is they fold entirely in the next few years. BTW, it is great to see you posting again.
 
batchaps4me said:
IMHO yes, they are. They are struggling for a tv rights deal and may very well be the first conference to go with a streaming service. They have neither the viewers nor the public interest to pull it off successfully. At best, they will be a G5 conference but the most likely scenario is they fold entirely in the next few years. BTW, it is great to see you posting again.
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Big 12 is going to have a lot of streaming as well. Even the Big Ten is going to have a few games on Peacock. PAC won't be the only conference with streaming, although it probably will be heavier than the others.

ASU president just stated the PAC 10 is in the final stages of their media deal. My guess is it's in line with the Big 12 and ACC. The elephant in the room is whether OR and WA will sign a deal or do they want to wait and see what the new Big Ten commissioner wants to do in April. If the PAC can get UO and UW on board, they'll have a competitive deal and expand back up to 12.

Just my 2 cents.
 
TheInsider said:
Big 12 is going to have a lot of streaming as well. Even the Big Ten is going to have a few games on Peacock. PAC won't be the only conference with streaming, although it probably will be heavier than the others.

ASU president just stated the PAC 10 is in the final stages of their media deal. My guess is it's in line with the Big 12 and ACC. The elephant in the room is whether OR and WA will sign a deal or do they want to wait and see what the new Big Ten commissioner wants to do in April. If the PAC can get UO and UW on board, they'll have a competitive deal and expand back up to 12.

Just my 2 cents.
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Kliavkoff has the perfect background to fix the PAC woes. I just wonder if the Presidents and ADs of the schools will get on board with him. He's got a difficult job to do that will probably bring resistance from some of the universities. The PAC was way down in a hole when he took the job.

My 2 cents.
 
We all know where this heading. Its gonna be Big 10 and SEC. The rest will be automatic conference qualifiers and 1 large at-bid for the other conferences still standing. The NCAA is losing power by the second.
 
OldDevilDawg said:
Kliavkoff has the perfect background to fix the PAC woes. I just wonder if the Presidents and ADs of the schools will get on board with him. He's got a difficult job to do that will probably bring resistance from some of the universities. The PAC was way down in a hole when he took the job.

My 2 cents.
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He's had some mishaps and he was out maneuvered by the Big 12. I agree though, he was given a difficult hand. USC and UCLA to the Big Ten wasn't going to be prevented by anything GK did. That said, if he can get all 10 members on board, he can salvage the conference and the PAC will remain a tier 2 conference (behind the SEC and Big Ten). The problem is if the Big Ten expands out west again, it's probably over for the PAC as a power conference.
 
AlaskaGuy said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635802383430344705
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Generic's graphic and information is actually wrong. The XII was a stronger academic conference (7 AAUs/11 R1 Research Institutions) than the SEC (2 AAUs/10 R1 Research Institutions) when Texas A&M and Missouri moved to it. It could be debated that the XII is still the better academic conference before Oklahoma and Texas left (1 less AAU, but more R1 Research Institutions and a better percentage). After the XII lost Colorado (AAU,R1), Nebraska (AAU [at the time],R1), Missouri (AAU,R1), Texas A&M (AAU,R1), and Texas (AAU,R1) to other conferences and Iowa State lost it's AAU status - they are NOW the least prestigious academic P5 conference, but that was not the case at the time.
 
david_WVU said:
Generic's graphic and information is actually wrong. The XII was a stronger academic conference (7 AAUs/11 R1 Research Institutions) than the SEC (2 AAUs/10 R1 Research Institutions) when Texas A&M and Missouri moved to it. It could be debated that the XII is still the better academic conference before Oklahoma and Texas left (1 less AAU, but more R1 Research Institutions and a better percentage). After the XII lost Colorado (AAU,R1), Nebraska (AAU [at the time],R1), Missouri (AAU,R1), Texas A&M (AAU,R1), and Texas (AAU,R1) to other conferences and Iowa State lost it's AAU status - they are NOW the least prestigious academic P5 conference, but that was not the case at the time.
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Wait, though......if it's on the internet, it must be true.
 
TheInsider said:
Big 12 is going to have a lot of streaming as well. Even the Big Ten is going to have a few games on Peacock. PAC won't be the only conference with streaming, although it probably will be heavier than the others.

ASU president just stated the PAC 10 is in the final stages of their media deal. My guess is it's in line with the Big 12 and ACC. The elephant in the room is whether OR and WA will sign a deal or do they want to wait and see what the new Big Ten commissioner wants to do in April. If the PAC can get UO and UW on board, they'll have a competitive deal and expand back up to 12.

Just my 2 cents.
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I looked this up the other day. Here is what I could find on the current numbers and the future contract numbers for the XII:
2022: Total Inventory 65 Football Games
Premier Networks 20 games (avg viewership 3.663 million)
Secondary Networks 28 games (avg viewership 818 K)
Tier 3: streaming and smaller (LHN, OU) networks 17 games. (26%)

2025: Total Inventory 78 Football games
ABC and ESPN "A" Package 20 games
Fox and FS1 Package 26 games.
That leaves 32 games unaccounted for, not sure if they will be on smaller networks, like FS2, ESPNU - or if they all will be on ESPN+ (streaming). (41%) ** If anyone has seen more details on this media package, please message me **

If you compare that to the PAC in 2022:
Total Inventory 78 Football games
Premier Network 29 games (avg viewership 2.491 million)
Secondary Network 15 games (avg viewership 500 K)
Tier 3: Assuming PAC network (PLEASE correct me if you know) 34 games. (43.6%)


EVEN if the PAC deal is heavier in streaming than the XII, I think the PAC Network might just be the albatross that no one wants to discuss. Would you rather be on a liner network that no one has, or a streaming platform with possibly millions of subscribers???

2022 #s from here - https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
OldDevilDawg said:
Wait, though......if it's on the internet, it must be true.
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Well, you know me, I am just a hick from the hills of West Vir-gin-i-a - not someone who can make a fancy graph.

BTW: You could also go back to the Big East and the ACC raids. They were pretty equal in numbers, but in percentages, the Big East had a better percentage of AAU schools.

I guess the XII should be going after Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice, even though it would lower everyone's payout, so that we can raise the academic standards of the conference. Then maybe if the ACC or PAC break up when the B1G/SEC expand, we can add schools. The XII is the only P5 conference that will ever except WVU, so I have to keep hoping that it will get stronger.
 
david_WVU said:
Well, you know me, I am just a hick from the hills of West Vir-gin-i-a - not someone who can make a fancy graph.

BTW: You could also go back to the Big East and the ACC raids. They were pretty equal in numbers, but in percentages, the Big East had a better percentage of AAU schools.

I guess the XII should be going after Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice, even though it would lower everyone's payout, so that we can raise the academic standards of the conference. Then maybe if the ACC or PAC break up when the B1G/SEC expand, we can add schools. The XII is the only P5 conference that will ever except WVU, so I have to keep hoping that it will get stronger.
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WVU should be in the ACC. I've said it for years and I stand by my position.
 
david_WVU said:
I looked this up the other day. Here is what I could find on the current numbers and the future contract numbers for the XII:
2022: Total Inventory 65 Football Games
Premier Networks 20 games (avg viewership 3.663 million)
Secondary Networks 28 games (avg viewership 818 K)
Tier 3: streaming and smaller (LHN, OU) networks 17 games. (26%)

2025: Total Inventory 78 Football games
ABC and ESPN "A" Package 20 games
Fox and FS1 Package 26 games.
That leaves 32 games unaccounted for, not sure if they will be on smaller networks, like FS2, ESPNU - or if they all will be on ESPN+ (streaming). (41%) ** If anyone has seen more details on this media package, please message me **

If you compare that to the PAC in 2022:
Total Inventory 78 Football games
Premier Network 29 games (avg viewership 2.491 million)
Secondary Network 15 games (avg viewership 500 K)
Tier 3: Assuming PAC network (PLEASE correct me if you know) 34 games. (43.6%)


EVEN if the PAC deal is heavier in streaming than the XII, I think the PAC Network might just be the albatross that no one wants to discuss. Would you rather be on a liner network that no one has, or a streaming platform with possibly millions of subscribers???

2022 #s from here - https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
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Most PAC insiders seem to believe the PAC Network and its content is going to be sold/leased to a streaming service in the future. Either part of ESPN+ or Apple TV. I'd argue that will actually help PAC visibility.
 
TheInsider said:
Most PAC insiders seem to believe the PAC Network and its content is going to be sold/leased to a streaming service in the future. Either part of ESPN+ or Apple TV. I'd argue that will actually help PAC visibility.
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Exactly my point. Yes, no one knows how well Amazon and/or Apple will be at streaming live sports, but at least you have a base to draw from, and anyone that is a PAC fan will subscribe, if they are not there already. That has to get more eyes on the games than the PACN did.
 
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